Saturday, January 24, 2009

Stock Market

For many observers, the current market is nothing more than a big mess; unpredictable, and illogical. However, for trend traders, the market had never been easier to read. In the current environment, "investment" is shrouded in fear and uncertainty. The common tactic employed to fight fear and uncertainty is of course diversification which reduce the risk margin, while having the same marginal return. In a market like this, diversification seem to matter little as all sectors seem to be hit just as heavily as the overall economy deteriorate. In other words, in this environment, one rules by fear, uncertainty, high risk, and speculation; there is no long such thing as investment.

The buy and hold investors had long excited the market, leaving room for only the bravest souls looking for a quick buck. Viewing the market in this way, the market will be operating on a rally than dumb approach. If one go back and look at the market for almost any average/good companies within the last month (companies with a positive cash flow), than one can easily see this trend. One day the market will be down due to profit taking, and the next day, market again rally due to the price drop from the profit taking the day before. Then one just need to buy when the mass are selling, and sell when the mass are buying.

Of course this is merely my observation. If one is to "invest"/trade, one certainly would need to understand the risk involved, and do one own due diligent. Come to the game with a game plan, adjust to the market, but never let emotion/fear/uncertainty change the game plan. Only proper DD should be able to do that.

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